Secondary school places: report for the Scrutiny Committee November 21

• [Nov 14]: . . 4.2 Current capacity

Despite the 25 % increase in live births per year between 2000 and 2010, there has traditionally been, and still is, considerable spare capacity in the secondary school provision within the borough, with, as at 17 October 2011, 209 spare places in Year 7 across the borough.

4.3 Take-up rate from Year 6 to Year 7

As can be seen from the chart in Appendix 1, which summarizes the forecast demand and plans, the take-up rate from Year 6 of the 34 primary and junior schools in the borough to Year 7 of the eight secondary schools and academies in the borough in 2011 was 83 %: 1,401/1,694. However, that percentage masks the fact that of the 1,401 children who entered Year 7 in the eight schools, only 959 (68%) live within the borough. As there are therefore 442 out-borough children within the current Year 7 cohort, it is the case that there is, in addition to the 209 vacancies in Year 7, a second cushion against in-borough resident demand outstripping supply: a significant proportion of those out-borough children would have been displaced had the demand on the part of in-borough parents been higher.

4.4 Out-borough children in in-borough schools and academies . .

4.5 The new community secondary school in north Kingston . .

4.6 Developments in other neighbouring authorities' areas . .

. . 4.7 The three sponsored academies

4.7.1 The table below shows that, for 2012/2013 entry, although the overall application numbers have risen at Hampton and Richmond Park, only 114 first preferences for the three academies have been expressed by in-borough parents, an increase of just six on the comparable 2011/2012 numbers.

In the cases of Hampton and Twickenham, the overall application numbers are not significantly increased from those - 193 and 123 respectively -for 2010/2011 entry; although the comparable increase at Richmond Park, from 58 in 2010, is much greater, albeit from a lower starting-point.

These data should also be seen in the context of the overall in-borough application cohort size, which, due to demographic growth and the economic downturn, has changed in recent years as follows:

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1,327 1,444 1,510 1,548 1,519 1,554

4.7.2 It therefore appears that, despite the fact that the 2012 application cohort is larger than it has been in the preceding five years, the translation of the academies' improvements in standards into significantly increased popularity among local residents, and towards oversubscription, has not kept up with the overall in-borough application cohort growth and, although completion of the building work in 2013, may consequently be slower than was envisaged in the assumptions that underscored the Education 'White Paper'.

That means that the three academies' wishes to reduce their admission numbers - from 210 to 180 at Hampton and Twickenham from 2013 onwards; and from 220 to 180 at Richmond Park from 2014 onwards - in order to accommodate sixth forms (see paragraph 4.15 below) could be managed, as indicated in the chart in Appendix 1, without imperilling the Council's ability to ensure that there are enough places in local schools for all in-borough children whose parents apply for them.

The Government capital funding that the academies have received for their building work was allocated on the basis of the current Year 7 admission numbers. If the academies feel that additional funding would be needed to create suitable accommodation for sixth forms, the Council will, in accordance with the Partnering Agreements it signed with the Learning Schools Trust and the Academies Enterprise Trust, help to make the case to Government.

. . 4.12 New secondary school at Clifden Road, Twickenham

4.12.1 The factors considered above, and the forecasts in Appendix 1 would seem to indicate that there is no short-term need for the Clifden Road site in Twickenham to be used for the establishment of a community secondary school, and that, if such a school were to be opened, it would adversely affect the recruitment of children to the three sponsored academies.

4.12.2 The possible establishment by the Diocese of Westminster of a Catholic secondary school in 2013 would release some places at the eight schools, most notably at Christ's, which has traditionally admitted 10-15 Catholic children per year under its 'Foundation' category.

4.12.3 At the time of writing, the outcome is not yet known of the Diocese's Section 10 application to the secretary of State for permission to publish a statutory proposal to establish a Catholic secondary school in the borough. If permission were granted, the Council would undertake full consultation with local residents as to the best use of the Clifden Road site.

. . 4.14 New community secondary school

4.14.1 The Education 'White Paper' stated that the Council "will undertake feasibility for one, possibly two, additional secondary schools (including one Roman Catholic) in the borough". Despite the apparently slower progress than anticipated towards oversubscription at the three sponsored academies noted above, it remains the case that the Council's pupil forecasts in Appendix 1 indicate that a new community secondary school may be required from September 2016, although it may be able to manage demand without such a school for several years after that.

Opening a community secondary school sooner than it would be absolutely necessary would almost certainly affect the growth in recruitment at Richmond Park Academy and Twickenham Academy. In order to maintain flexibility, the Council is nevertheless working with partners to secure a suitable site and accommodation for a new school.

4.14.2 The size of such a school would be crucial. As was noted with Christ's in paragraph 4.8, a four-form entry school could find it difficult to compete with larger schools as its budget would be much smaller. Nevertheless, there would be a risk that a five-form (or larger) school would constitute an over-provision of places.

. . 4.17 Summary

4.17.1 It is probable that the increased demand in the primary sector will not lead to capacity being exceeded until beyond 2016 at the earliest, if at all. However, the relatively small amount of spare capacity that will be available means that a new community secondary school may be needed

4.17.2 The pupil forecasts in Appendix 2 are predicated on recruitment to the three sponsored academies increasing more rapidly than in the likely scenario outlined in Appendix 1, but even if those forecasts turn out to be more accurate it would still be the case that a new community secondary school would not be required until 2016.

• Spreadsheet assumptions:

2011: Grey Court capacity temporarily increased for budgetary reasons; Twickenham Academy capacity reduced by 1FE for duration of new build.

2013: Christ's capacity permanently increased by 1FE; 'linked school' criterion removed for Grey Court, Orleans Park, Teddington and the three sponsored academies; Grey Court capacity reduced to normal PAN; capacity at Hampton Academy and Twickenham Academy permanently reduced by 1FE each to accommodate sixth forms; establishment of 5FE Catholic secondary school; establishment of three free schools.

2014: capacity at Richmond Park Academy permanently reduced by 1FE to accommodate a sixth form.

2015: establishment of 8FE community school in north Kingston would free up places for LBRuT children at Christ's and Grey Court.

2016: establishment of 5FE community school/academy - with consequent adverse effects upon recruitment at Richmond Park and Twickenham.

• Scrutiny Committee Agenda Nov 21

• Secondary School Places (Report for the Education & Children's Services Overview & Scrutiny Committee 21/11/11)

• Report Appendix 1 = spreadsheet forecast to 2020